Rangelife

It's NFL season, dear friends

Earth is a mere quarter-rotation from the start of the 2009 NFL season. As the sun sets on our glorious American empire, and mankind faces its inevitable doom from its own greed, fear, and tribalism, it takes an especially colorful and complicated form of mindless violence to distract us. This is why we live for the NFL.

As I've mentioned in years past, I don't make predictions for a full season. All it takes is one brittle shoulder or one ill-placed gun-in-the-sweatpants to throw everything out of whack. And did anyone who actually watches the game project the Cardinals in the Super Bowl, or the Dolphins as AFC East champs? No. No, they did not.

So, instead of predicting like a man, I will go the more womanly route and express my feelings about this upcoming season, division by division.

AFC East: Everyone -- and I mean everyone -- is picking the Patriots to win the division. And why not? This is more or less the same team that went 16-0 two years ago, with a younger defense. Nobody -- and I mean nobody -- is picking Miami to repeat. They're arguably better than last year, but play a murderous schedule and have taken numerous off-the-field steps to make themselves less likeable, including a ridiculous stadium renaming, new celebrity co-owners, and a so-five-months-ago Auto-Tune fight song. The Bills have the monstrous T.O. lining up at wide receiver, which should be fun. Their O-line is a disaster, and their offensive coordinator did not go quietly after they shitcanned him minutes before the season is to start. (Deadspin also quoted me in their Bills preview. See if you can guess which pseudonym I am.) The Jets blow taint, with a knucklehead rookie head coach and a QB who's started 16 games since high school. They'll probably win the Super Bowl.

AFC North: The Steelers are the Steelers, which means some new linebacker nobody's ever heard of will win Defensive Player of the Year. The Ravens are the Ravens, which means they'll play a lot of 12-9 games and might go 5-11 or 11-5 depending on which way the punts bounce. And then there's Ohio. After fucking up the second half of this decade with their stupid voting, they've been appropriately cursed with two utter piss-bags for pro football teams. The Bengals are a perpetual basket case where it counts -- the interior lines. The Browns didn't score a single offensive TD after Thanksgiving last year. This year, the Browns and Bengals have arguably the softest rosters in the whole league. Which means one of them will win the Super Bowl.

AFC South: The Colts bring a new coach and the more-or-less the same attitude to the NFL's grossest fans. The Titans seem doomed for a let-down after losing their most dominant player to the Washington Redskins, the NFL's Bear Stearns. (Also, their starting QB is still an old drunk, which mighta flown in the '70s. God, the '70s seem fun.) The Texans look awesome at the skill positions. Jacksonville will probably not see a home game this year due to the utter collapse of the local economy, which consisted entirely of people moving there to buy houses to resell to more people moving there. They'll probably win the Super Bowl, which at least can't be blacked out.

AFC West: The NFL's saddest division actually got worse during the offseason. Denver's rookie head coach arguably got off to the worst start in history this spring, by chasing away or alienating the team's only good players and failing to do anything to improve the NFL's worst defense. Kansas City made some big moves during the offseason, but they will also suffer the indignity of wearing a picture of Texas on their helmets for three games this season. Every year the Chargers crow about their talent and then barely eke out a playoff spot. Their coach is still Mumbles Turner, and their defensive player allegedly beat his girlfriend Tila Tequila, which means he also has at least one horrifying STD. The Oakland Raiders are the most comically erratic franchise in sports, and we in the Bay Area are blessed to have them. They will not win the Super Bowl.

NFC East: The NFL's most entertaining division also happens to straddle in America's media power centers, which is a mitzvah for football fans. The Eagles became more entertaining during the offseason with the addition of new WRs and a backup QB who took a couple years off to pursue other interests in the incarceration field. The Redskins' evil ownership spent the offseason failing to replace their QB. So, get out there and lead the team, Jason Campbell! Instead they cracked open the ATM for the Titans' Albert Haynesworth. Like all big Redskins deals, this one will leave both teams poorer. The Cowboys have a new billion-dollar stadium with the world's largest hi-def punt blocking device. They also have no solid WRs, a sketchy pass defense, and an ever-constipated coach. It should be awesome. The Giants are mediocre, which means they'll be bitching and fighting by mid-season, and everyone will remember what a useless dick their coach seemed before he won that fluky Super Bowl two years ago.

NFC North: The Vikings were already engaging in the remarkable experiment of being awesome at every facet of football except passing. In order to plug this deficiency, they've inserted a broken old man at QB. What could possibly go wrong? The Bears, meanwhile, have their first legitimate QB since, I dunno, the 1950s? Sadly, he has nobody to throw to. The Packers are a one-trick pony, and that pony is dying. The Lions are coming off the most improbably awful season in recent sports memory, with little hope for improvement in 2009. They'll probably win the Super Bowl.

NFC South: Is anyone in this division not great? OK, Tampa Bay is a big nothing with a teenager for a coach. New Orleans' passing game is great fun to watch, mostly because they need to stay ahead of a defense that hardly seems to try. Carolina looked like a world-beater until a giant choke against the Cardinals in January; playoffs-and-choke seems to be a pattern with them. Atlanta was the NFC's Dolphins last year -- how appropriate those two teams open the season with each other. Everyone seems to think the Falcons are doomed for a fall. They'll probably win the Super Bowl.

NFC West: Remember when Atlanta and New Orleans were in the NFC West? Geographic FAIL aside, those were glorious days, for a division where Arizona -- a team with no running game or pass defense to speak of -- is considered the cock of the walk needs some fresh realignment. The Rams suck. The Seahawks are creaky and post-Holmgren. The 49ers are a scourge. If the NFL were like European soccer, this whole division would be relegated to the PAC-10.

The Big Fuzzy Freaks of 1995

Every sports all-star game is a dumb exhibition game with spotty participation and meager effort. At least the Pro Bowl never had any relevance to lose.

Even the most die-hard NFL fans could hardly care less about the Pro Bowl. But its utter meaninglessness, as well as its role as post-Super Bowl anticlimax, has given football fans some occasional weirdness to enjoy.

Take, for example, 1995. That was the year that teams trotted out one-off mascots, like the wildly offensive Washington Bloodthirsty Savage, and the obviously stoned Miami Bubblehead.

 

Well see if next year's New, Improved Pro Bowl (the week before the Super Bowl) will be something other than an unappealing, no-hitting, no-defense mincamp scrimmage. Our guess: Not.

Well, that was just about perfect

The superior fans get a championship.

America gets a killer game for the second year in a row.

And Seamus gets paid.

Last-minute Rangelife Conference Championship Predictions

Previous record vs. the spread: 4-4.

Philly at Arizona +3.5: Philly is tired. Arizona is hot, and at home.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -6: Rookie QB vs. best defense ever. Steelers O-line came back from the dead last week.

The 2009 Rangelife NFL Divisional Playoffs Predictions

Notes observant reader tk:

3 out of 4 ain't bad at all! I'm going to start ignoring my gut and following you. What's your feeling on Baltimore-Tennessee?

Indeed, I did hit three out of four Wild Card games against the spread. (Suck it, Falcons.) Sounds good, but it’s one referee call away from just breaking even.

Ignoring your gut is great advice for all bettors, whether it’s on cricket or the NASDAQ. Billions of dollars are earned on world markets every week by those who exploit others’ guts. This is more formally known as “behavioral finance.” Football pools are mere options markets, the betting lines the same as bid/ask prices that move based on supply-and-demand.

Lots of people make predictions on football, but most fail by making what I call “spiritual” picks. You know, like “There’s no way Peyton Manning is going to let his team lose to the Chargers again.” Or “I just think the Vikings want this more.”

Football is, more than most sports, a confluence of skill matchups and game-planning.  The team that wins those tends to score more points than its opponents. When you introduce a point spread, the “spiritual” hordes inevitably move the line too far in one direction, which is why the safest bets used to be against Notre Dame (before the Midwest Catholics realized Jesus didn’t really give a gnat’s ass about the Irish).

But enough lecturing. Here are my Divisional Playoff Weekend picks, for amusement purposes only. Oddly, all four games are regular-season rematches, which must be a first-time event. All lines are from Yahoo.

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Baltimore +3 at Tennessee. As I mentioned last week, the Ravens have been beating the shit out of everybody for the last three months or so. Their run defense is one of the best in league history, and their relentless pressure and physicality forced Chad Pennington to throw more picks in two quarters than he had since Halloween. Tennessee runs a solid, two-back running game and not much passing at all. The Titans also wield a deeply balanced defense, although not as dominant as Baltimore’s. Expect a low score, and probably a Baltimore win.

Arizona at Carolina -10. I’ve heard a lot of people say the “smart money” is on Arizona. “10 points is too much for a playoff game.” Bullshit. Five of the eight Wild Card and Divisional games were decided by double digits last season. The Cardinals went 0-5 on the east coast this year, and surrendered 24, 56, 27, 48, and 47 points. Carolina meanwhile has scored more than 30 points in four of its last five games. It was a close win for the Panthers last time they faced the Cards, but they’ve gotten stronger.

Philadelphia at Giants -4. Who knows what to make of the Giants? They lost three of their last four, including to these Eagles in this stadium just a month ago (their only home loss of the season). Philly humiliated the Cowboys and the Vikings in the course of eight days. The Giants running game is unstoppable. The Eagles will try to pass and pass, and they’ll lose on game planning and matchups.

San Diego +6 at Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ 2008 defense rivals the Steel Curtain teams of the ‘70s or Buddy Ryan’s “46” Bears. But their offense is a disaster, primarily due to a line that can’t open lanes or protect their QB. They in many ways resemble the ’06 Bears that went to the Super Bowl without any kind of offense. This one’s gonna be close, closer than 6 at least.

The 2009 Rangelife Wild Card Weekend Predictions

For entertainment purposes only. All odds from Yahoo! Sports.

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Arizona Cardinals: The Falcons wield a killer running game, the best rookie QB since Marino, and a much-improved defense. The Cardinals are a one-dimensional team from a rotten division that somebody had to win. Falcons will feast on the clock.

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers +1.5: Colts won this game in this stadium by a field goal just five weeks ago. While the Colts have won nine straight games, all but two were mighty close. The Chargers, meanwhile, are finally healthy at RB, while the Colts' defense is not. The Colts have better coaching, but the Bolts win on match-ups.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Miami Dolphins: I watched every Dolphins game this year for the first time since I was, I don't know, 16? And I can report that this is the oddest 11-5 team I've ever seen, a team with no obvious strengths except preparation, innovation, and execution. The Dolphins simply fuck up less than their opponents, which counts for a lot. It's a team Vince Lombardi would love. The Ravens, meanwhile, have been beating the shit out of everybody with a punishing running game and an astonishingly great defense. Among their victims has been this opponent in this stadium. I hope I'm as wrong about this as I was about the election, but the Ravens look like a Super Bowl contender right now, rookie QB and all.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Minnesota Vikings: Two great, great defenses. Two great, great do-it-all RBs. But Philly has a more legitimate QB.

It's the most wonderful time of the year

The day after the final Sunday of the NFL season is a wonderful day indeed.

Brett Favre. Christ, what a disaster you were. If any other player performed the way you did in December, you’d be benched summarily. But your "legend" status boxed in the coaching staff. Bench Brett Favre? Would the gods even permit it?

Favre’s season and probably his career ended with an utter FAIL, an illegal forward pass that couldn’t have looked more pathetic and desperate if it were heaved by John McCain. Now Favre's coaching staff has been sacked (hastily and stupidly), his team branded a disaster despite improving by five wins from the prior year. And soon he will kick off his annual "maybe I'll retire, maybe this time for real" dance, except this time with a new fan base comprised of unforgiving monsters, instead of the old one that viewed him as a slightly more perfect version of Jesus.

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And then there’s Miami. The Dolphins, last year one lucky overtime play away from an historical 0-16 season, are the champions of the AFC East and the #3 seed in the conference. This Sunday they will host the Ravens, who provided the Dolphins' lone 2007 victory. Both teams were a combined 6-26 last year.

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The other four AFC playoff teams all return from last year. Meanwhile, the New York Giants are the only 2007 NFC playoff team to return.

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Pats fans need to stop whinging as if the NFL invented divisions only to screw their team.

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And now, your 2008 Dallas Cowboys:

Cowboys Schaudenfreude is the purest emotion known to man. It’s like Yankees Schaudenfreude with a pelvis-rattling orgasm and a shot of adrenochrome directly to the frontal lobe.

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Anybody watch HBO’s Hard Knocks this season? We got to spend a month in Cowboys’ training camp, hearing about how deep the Boys were at every position, how privileged they were to learn from the master coach Wade Phillips and his sexy daughter, how Felix Jones was going to be rookie of the year, Tony Romo an instant Hall of Famer.

If the Cowboys’ hubris was TV’s most obvious plot point this season, then so was the Chiefs’ doomage last season. Hard Knocks –- every NFL fan should be required to watch.

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The Raiders went from week 4 to week 16 without converting a single third down of over nine yards.

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On November 17th, the Browns Jerome Harrison ran for a 72-yard TD on the first play of the fourth quarter. And that was the Browns offense's last touchdown of the season.

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Jay Cutler is a sulky twat. His Broncos lose what is essentially a divisional championship playoff to the Chargers, and these are the words he chose to describe his post-game feelings:

Cutler stopped to answer an unambiguous question: Was it fair to conclude that the team he just played is for real?

“These guys?” the Pro Bowl quarterback asked, gesturing to the players celebrating behind him. “San Diego? No, I don’t think so. I think Indy’ll handle ‘em pretty good. We really can’t stop anybody, and that’s the bottom line.”

Disrespecting your opponents (who just beat you) and your own team in one quote. Stay classy, Cutler!

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Being on Facebook has really helped me comprehend just how fucking long ago college was.

And I think Edgerrin James is feeling the same these days. Here’s what he said after winning a bet on the Emerald Bowl, even though his Canes lost the game 24-17:

“I made sure to get 10 pts… Older I get, the easier it gets.”

I love it. It would have been more manly to bet straight up, but he demanded points. Older = wiser.

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Tomorrow, my picks for Wild Card weekend.

Surely You Jets

California attitude, New Jersey intellect:

God bless America. I wonder if The Mavrick is at the game.

Are you ready for some Oakland?

This season, I decided to eschew preseason NFL predictions for a number of obvious reasons:

1. If you look at the experts' picks, most project 9-11 of the 12 playoff teams to repeat from the prior year, when the real number typically turns out to be 6 or 7. 

2. Stuff happens. Like Tom Brady getting his knee murdered in week one. How do you factor those kinds of risks into your predictions? You can't. FAIL.

3. The NFL plays a mere 16 games per team, of which many are decided by one TD or less. In a typical season, the difference between an 11-5 and a 6-10 team could be three beneficial referee calls, one fewer critical injury, and a weird bounce on a punt. 

4. That said, the Cowboys are going to be very good, and the Chiefs may go 0-16.

Now... are you ready for some Oakland? The Raiders embody all that's right with America. Their evil management attracts the worst-behaved players and the most wretched fans. And they rightfully suck. 

But boy, are they fun to have around.

Source: Denver Westword's Five Videos to Make You Rethink that Trip to Oakland for Raiders-Broncos.

Bigfoot My Ass

 

Source: de-noted

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Apparently somebody has discovered Bigfoot, and the Internet is going wild over it.

It's bullshit. You know it's bullshit. It's always bullshit. I'd rather spend 90 seconds declaring my intention not to read about it, than to learn any actual details.

I can believe in UFOs. But don't tell me that any creature, much less a creature with no clear evolutionary relatives, has successfully evaded human capture or even a convincing photograph to this point in history.

Next thing you'll be claiming that those miniature Chinese gymnasts are 16.

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I like this: What Would Don Draper Do?

Dear Don Draper, I found a copy of "On The Road" by that beatnik writer in my son's room. Should I call the police or just rough him up a little and kick him out of the house like his grandmother suggested?

Neither. You’ve dodged a bullet. It’s best he go through that phase while he’s still under your roof and you can keep an eye on him. Many men waste their money on college tuition while their pretentious kids self-indulgently deny they were ever taught accountability. Leave the kid alone and hope he moves on to better books before he moves out. Panic will only cause him to clutch the filth tighter and, worse, longer.

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News from across the street from my house:

A local resident was bitten on her lower back by a man as she jogged on ___. She felt pain as she ran and saw that a man she had just passed was restraining her. A witness saw the woman run pass the suspect (described as a white male 18 to 24 years of age, standing 5'8" tall, weighing 150 pounds, with brown hair, wearing a blue and white checkered shirt, blue jeans and black and white checkered shoes) and then saw the suspect run toward the victim, crouch, and press his face to her back. The suspect fled south on ___. Glen Canyon was searched to no avail.

I've seen several creepy men living in the thickets of Glen Canyon, but never before did I suspect that one was really Marv Albert.

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The only college football preview you'll need to read: The Balls Deep Hater's Guide to the Top 25. Example:

11. Auburn

Fun fact: In the entire history of the school, no Auburn student has ever graduated. In fact, they don’t even plan a commencement. Everyone just kind of wanders off campus around March or so.

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Memories of playing Madden the "wrong way":

Late-Hit Bowl, the object was to get flagged for as many late hits as possible and if the other guy ended up on the one yard line or scored on the drive, you got his points.

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Finally, since you can smell football season, enjoy "Ram It" by the Rammers, by far the most homoerotic of the many "Super Bowl Shuffle" knockoffs.