Rangelife

Why I blew the 2008 presidential election

Okay, I called McCain over Obama in Nov. 2006, and then stuck with that prediction through 2008. I blew it. What did I misunderestimate?

First, I don't buy the "McCain couldn't win in this environment" business, which is the Republicans' attempt to define an "America is still a center-right nation" narrative. You see, just because America elected expansive Democratic majorities at all levels of elected government, that doesn't mean that actually want the Democrats to do the things they'd expect of Democrats. Horseshit.

McCain could have won the election. He could have separated himself more completely from Bush instead of prevaricating, selected a trustworthy VP candidate, developed a convincing change message, and stuck with it. Instead he flailed. And he failed.

How Obama won:

• Discipline. For smart candidates, the hardest part of campaigning is sticking to your message. I didn't think Obama would be able to do it.
• Organization. All my favorite right-wing blogs traced the power of the Obama campaign to Marxist organizing principles. And when I got a text message from the campaign urging me to fly to Colorado to support the Great Movement, I started to believe the kooks. The Bolsheviks will come not on horseback, but on Facebook.
• Performance. Gen X has never seen another candidate with such energy, consistency, and pure stamina. Obama's three debate performances were so solid, so comforting, so vastly improved over his matchups with Hillary, that they locked up a large portion of the electorate. Down the stretch, he was doing three states a day. I still weep for the poor schmucks in the press who had to sleep on the plane.

How McCain failed:

• The Sarah Palin selection. If George W. Bush represents the vestiges of America's mediocre aristocracy, then Palin represents our superstitious provincialism. By picking a know-nothing punchline-in-waiting, McCain lost major influencers, what remained of his media halo, and untold millions of votes. Given his age and health, McCain's VP selection was the most critical of any campaign's in memory. He had months to get it right, and he impetuously grasped on instinct. It led many voters to ask: What kind of decisions could we expect of him as president when he so badly blew this one?
• Sarah, again. I thought McCain could have been a transformative candidate, by rebuilding the oddball Republican nexus between fiscal and religious conservatives. But the Palin selection only split those groups further apart. Marketing guru Seth Godin nails it:

John McCain had a dilemma. He didn't particularly like the base nor did they like him. His initial strategy was not to lead this existing tribe, but to weave a new tribe. The idea was that independents and some Democrats, together with the traditional pre-Reagan core of the Republican party, would weave together a new centrist base... Building a new tribe (in marketing and in politics) is time consuming and risky and expensive...

Then, McCain made a momentous decision. He chose Sarah Palin, and did it for one huge reason: to embrace the Rove/Bush 'base'. To lead a tribe that was already there, but not yet his. He was hoping for a side effect, which was to attract Hillary Clinton's tribe, one that in that moment, was also leaderless...

In McCain's case, it failed. His choice cost him the economically-concerned middle (which went to Obama's carefully woven tribe). And it clearly cost him the mostly female Clinton tribe. Yes, he energized the conservative base, but he lost the election. If he had chosen Mike Huckabee, one could wonder what would have happened. Would this less polarizing figure been able to collect a bigger tribe for him?

• Reinforcing his own negative narratives. McCain had three weaknesses to overcome to win over mainstream voters -- his age, his self-professed weak grasp of economics, and his being a Republican. His behavior during the bailout negotiations reinforced all of the negatives. Meanwhile, Obama had little of substance to offer, but he blew McCain out on demeanor.
• Ineptness down the stretch. When he should have been closing the deal with a positive narrative, McCain flailed among "Obama was friends with a domestic terrorist," "Obama is a socialist," and "We are all Joe the Plumber." Then he appeared on SNL in a sketch that looked remarkably like a concession speech. The whole was less than the sum of its parts.

So there you go. I promise to do better next time.

It's morning in America

I served Budweiser and Sierra, but my friends brought Champagne from our "frenemy" France. 

Last night was incredible. We have a President with both a heart and a brain. The Democrats run Washington for the first time in 15 years. 

It wasn't all good, of course:

• California voters decided that people should only be allowed to marry people of the other sex, and that this denial of civil rights was critical enough to enshrine in the state constitution.
• Alaskans reelected Sen. Ted Stevens after he was convicted of corruption. What the fuck is wrong with Alaska? Seriously.
• Al Franken's race with Norm Coleman is too close to call. Franken's funny, but he has about as much business being a member of the US Senate as Richard Simmons.
• Ann Coulter was inexplicably on CBS's news panel this morning. That kinda ruined my breakfast.
• Finally, my head is throbbing from a bourbon cocktail, three Buds, and four kinds of Champagne.

***

Here's a fun email from one of my crazy uncles:

This will be seen by history as the day

America

lost it's way. We will all suffer for this indiscretion for many many years. I feel sorry for the young kids who will have to live in an America that will force small businesses into unionism, stand in endless lines for health care, and have their free speech limited by laws that disallow opposing points of view (especially on the radio).  Sorry, but I don't have any good things to say about Obama...He is a Socialist and has hidden his past and his true agenda...and liars do not have any righteousness in my eyes! Just you wait! I hope we can survive the next four years.

Everyone report to the salt mines!

***

Meanwhile, this is from a friend of mine, who as George Carlins says, happens to be black. It really hit me in the gut.

I respect the opinions and common sense of "Tommy" as much as anybody's I know. And Tommy was the one who insisted that America was too racist to elect a black POTUS.

But Tommy was in for the surprise of his life.

My voter protection-election observer assignment was in Penn. Rural area outside of Allentown, PA.  I didn't want to go.  Figured it was heavily republican, anti Barack.  What votes needed protecting there?  Decided to go anyway.  Save for a lunch break, I stood outside of from 7:00 a.m. -8:00 p.m.  Saw 2 black men, maybe 2 black women, and 3 other people of color. Tons of elderly whites. Plenty of white guys with hunting/gun/camouflage influenced gear and scraggly clothes-beards.   Less than 20 percent were under 35.  Figured that if Obama could get 10 maybe 15 percent of the precinct it would be a real victory.   Heavy turnout.  Probably only 500 registered voters in the precinct did not vote.

1486 McCain
886 Obama

Notwithstanding Iowa and the rest of the primaries and all the polls, I underestimated Whites' ability to cross racial lines to vote for the best candidate from the very beginning to the very end.  The progress that many Whites have made in terms of overcoming prejudice is stark and real.  Ironically, many have made more progress than me.  Still in shock.

In some sense, this captured how Obama won. He took not only mobilized millions of first-time voters, but he won surprisingly large chunks in places where he shouldn't have gotten any votes at all.

Thank you, my White brothers and sisters.

I was wrong

Over the summer I predicted a McCain victory.

Today, I'm savoring Obama '08. Tomorrow, I'll write about how I blew it.

We did this

Viva Democracy!

Yes, that was me leaving messages on Harrisburg (PA) answering machines with their poll locations and hours. I was very successful at it, apparently.

Barack Hussein Obama is the president-elect of the United States of America. Let that sink in for a minute.

And then appreciate that it was no accident of history. It was the result of a massive effort by thousands of volunteers who chipped in their money, their spare moments, their cell phone minutes.

This was our big project. Against all odds, all projections, Barack Hussein Obama is president-elect. We did this.

We did this.

11/4/08 - God willing

Source: Patrick Moberg

Take heed, Halloweenies

it's that kind of office
Originally uploaded by miz_ginevra.

It's a given that the cheapo Palin is the new cheapo sexy-kitten. So, all praise is due for the office worker who's willing to head this off in advance. And all praise to the Ginevra of Delight for posting this on the Intertubes.

See it bigger.

All aboard the Atheist Bus!

In merry old England, Richard Dawkins and a humanist group have purchased an atheist aphorism for Westminster's "bendy" buses. It's fun, positive, and full of doubt. Win!

"There's probably no God. Now stop worrying and enjoy your life."

Sage advice. But you know who is worrying? America's over-churched whites, that's who.

Yes, back in the USA, Tracy Kerlee's vote is worth as much as yours. Probably more, since she lives in a swing state.

"I can't imagine having a president of the United States being named President Obama. I really have a problem with that, and I am not the only one."

"Because that means what to you?"

"His background. Huh. Ugh. His mother that was an atheist. Ugh. That really gets to me. His father that was a Muslim. That should get to everyone."

Tracy is from Virginia. I assume from Real Virginia.

Another reason why an Obama victory will be sweeeet

Classy gentleman spotted in exurban Atlanta.

Let's start with a little story from the utterly indispensible 538.com Electoral Projection Blog:

So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

In this economy, racism is officially a luxury.

If that's the case, then the hardest of the hardcore bigots may be living their worst nightmare come November 5th. And that would be so phenomenal.

In fact, I'm going import a few cases of my favorite Japanese beverage for them. Enjoy your horrible new reality, mouthbreathers!

Finally, Philly sports fans use their evil powers for good

The people of Philadelphia give Gov. Palin the treatment they usually reserve for Santa Claus or Michael Irvin's cracked vertebrae. 

Well, I was saying "Boo-urns."

***

Update: Gov. Lipstick should be arrested for child abuse:

"I've been warned that Flyers fans, they get so enthused, that they boo everybody at the drop of the puck," she said at a Philadelphia fundraiser Saturday afternoon. "But what I thought I'd do is I'd put Piper in a Flyers jersey, bring her out with me. How dare they boo Piper!"

She can see Russia, but she can't see Philly's hate.

ACORN is Obama's Willie Horton

 

Fresh back from a few days in DC (and Florida to boot) has put me in a strange mood. For one, the District of Columbia, which even Walter Mondale conquered in '84, is Obama-wacky! Seriously, Dick Cheney couldn't shoot a quail in DC without accidentally hitting a person, car, home, or other object wrapped in Obama paraphernalia. OK, maybe I shouldn't have used the word "accidentally" in that example.

But I'm still worried about America.

* Background: Recall that I called McCain vs. Obama in November 2006. (Yay for me!) Last time I predicted anything was the morning before his convention speech: I reiterated McCain's favorite status. (Booooo for me!)

I hoped and still hope I was wrong about that latter prediction. The "otherization" of Barack Hussein Obama is still McCain-Palin's primary strategy down the homestretch, and it's working, at least among the already-converted. They're also trying to pin the financial meltdown on Obama via his association with ACORN, an organization that no Republican outside the mortgage banking sector had heard of before last week.

* Following Tuesday's debate, the blessed David Gergen made the kind of direct point that all talking heads should aspire to imitate: "I think it's too early to declare victory, because Barack Obama is black."

True, but not a complete thought. Gergen's fallacy is that "black" is just the tip of the iceberg; Obama's race mostly matters on its own for over-50 voters. More important is the funny African/Arabic name, the childhood years in Indonesia, the tours through the Ivy League. The voters in central Pennsylvania, southeastern Ohio, and southwestern Virginia have never known anybody like Barack Hussein Obama.

When you add it all up, Obama's not just destined to be soft on terrorists. He's possibly a terrorist himself. I mean, who is this guy?

* Obama was spotted a few months back reading Fareed Zakaria's The Post-American World, and doesn't that seem more prescient than ever? (More on that tomorrow.)

* ACORN is Obama's Willie Horton, a mysterious black group of black people who black blacked our economy into a sorry position where everyone will be as poor as blacks. That's what the right-wingers mean when they yell "socialist"!

"Get a job!"